this comes out to 26%.

*The official A.A. figures, which show an A.A, membership in the U.S. of around one million, are very conservative -- the National Institute of Health surveys show that there are quite a few more Americans than that who are sober because of having attended A.A.




**By way of comparison, there were 50,000 in attendance at the Minneapolis convention in 2000, and 50,000 at the Toronto convention in 2005.



***Let's say we have a four-year university program, like the undergraduate programs at Indiana University, only at this university, nobody ever drops out, and nobody is ever flunked out. We enroll 1,000 new students every year:



1st year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total

2nd year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total

3rd year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total

4th year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total



Does this mean that 75% of the students are flunked out, and that only 25% successfully gain their degrees? Of course not! The ratio of 4th year students to 1st year students is 1,000/1,000 (or 25/25, which ever way you choose to phrase it) which means a one hundred percent success rate.



During the 33 years I taught at Indiana University, we in fact performed these calculations every year -- although we in fact did have a certain percentage of students who dropped out or were flunked out every year -- in order to keep an eye on any places where we might have an abnormally high ratio of students failing to make it, so that we could attempt remedial measures of some sort.



In the A.A. Triennial Surveys, 19% of the people in their first year of attending A.A. meetings were in their first month of attending A.A., while 5% of the first year people were in their twelfth month of attending A.A. If we take that 5/19 ratio -- 5 divided by 19 -- this comes out to 26%.
--

Bill Cleveland

310-792-8013